The 2024 Market Oracle: Spotlighting Accurate Predictions

The S&P 500 Bull Market

Despite predictions of a soft landing for the US economy, investors were surprised by the unwavering dominance of artificial intelligence companies and the S&P 500's impressive 20%+ returns.

Jeff DeGraaf, chief US equity strategist at Renaissance Macro, accurately predicted the S&P 500's climb to 5,800 in 2023 based on a combination of factors, including low investor sentiment and momentum gauges indicating a bullish trend.

Mary Ann Bartels, chief investment strategist at Sanctuary Wealth, saw the potential for a significant impact of artificial intelligence on the economy and forecasted the index to reach 7,200 to 7,400 by the end of 2025.

Tyler Richey, technical strategist at Sevens Report Research, identified technical indicators suggesting the S&P 500 could exceed 6,000 by year-end, despite signs of a potential market reversal in the near future.

The "Roaring '20s" Comeback

Economic stimulus and the rise of artificial intelligence have fueled a resurgence of economic growth, reminiscent of the original "Roaring '20s." Jason Draho, CIO Americas at UBS, predicted a strong economic decade in 2021, and, thanks to government spending and AI investment, his prediction has come to fruition.

An Unexpected 50 Basis-Point Rate Cut

Michael Feroli, chief US economist at JPMorgan, and Neil Dutta, chief US economist at Renaissance Macro, defied consensus by maintaining their prediction of a 50 basis-point rate cut in September. They argued that a significant reduction in interest rates was necessary to strengthen the labor market and combat persistent inflation.

Rate Cuts Postponed

Zehrid Osmani, portfolio manager at Martin Currie, and Phillip Colmar, chief US economist at MRB Partners, went against the grain, predicting that the Fed would delay rate cuts until the second half of 2024. They believed that persistent wage inflation would keep upward pressure on prices.

The Small-Cap Surge

Jonathan Golub, chief US equity strategist at UBS, foresaw a rally in small-cap stocks in mid-2024, as investors anticipated rate cuts and economic growth. The Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund ETF (VB) surged 17% in the second half of the year, confirming Golub's prediction.

The Nvidia Ascent

Matthew Ramsay, analyst at TD Cowen, named Nvidia his top chip stock pick in 2023, predicting a 40% upside. The stock has rallied even higher, fueled by strong earnings and the growing demand for its graphics processing unit products.

Gold's Resurgence

George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at State Street Global Advisors, predicted a rally in gold prices, citing economic uncertainty and central banks increasing their gold reserves. The price of gold has soared this year, surpassing $2,700 an ounce.