Skeptical Science New Research for Week #50 2024
Open access notables:
Regional Impacts Poorly Constrained by Climate Sensitivity, Swaminathan et al., Earth's Future:
Climate risk assessments must account for a wide range of possible futures, so scientists often use simulations made by numerous global clim…
## Climate Change: Unveiling the Intricacies### Latest Research#### Regional Impacts: Ambiguity and VariationRecent simulations using advanced climate models show a nuanced relationship between the hypothetical climate sensitivity of global climate models and projected changes in specific climate variables. For most regions, there is little to no apparent link between climate sensitivity and expected rainfall, meteorological drought, or wildfire weather. Even when a correlation exists, the influence of internal climate variability often rivals the impact of the simulated climate sensitivity on the forecasted changes in these variables.#### Precision in Assessing Human-Induced WarmingLinear methods for estimating human-induced warming based on the relationship between atmospheric CO2 levels and temperature have been shown to offer greater certainty than alternative methods. For the year 2023, this approach estimates that human activities have led to a global temperature increase of 1.49°C relative to pre-industrial levels, with a 30% lower uncertainty margin than other methods.#### Endangered Species Face Extended Extinction RiskA comprehensive analysis synthesizing over 5 million projections has determined that, with increasing certainty, extinctions will accelerate if global temperatures exceed 1.5°C. In the worst-case emission scenario, approximately one-third of all species on Earth could be threatened. Amphibians, species inhabiting mountain, island, and freshwater ecosystems, and those residing in South America, Australia, and New Zealand are particularly vulnerable. Climate change has already contributed to an increasing proportion of observed global extinctions since 1970.### Corporate Influence and Climate Mitigation#### Carbon Capture and Storage as a Climate NeutralizerA study of the partnership between Germany and Norway regarding carbon capture and storage (CCS) and hydrogen production raises concerns about potential carbon lock-ins, where reliance on these technologies could perpetuate fossil fuel usage and undermine climate risk assessments. This suggests that carbon capture should be coupled with permanent storage, rather than recycling use.#### Young Lives Disproportionately Lost to Extreme HeatIn Mexico, where wet-bulb temperatures provide an unparalleled window into the impact of extreme heat, studies have revealed that younger people bear the brunt of heat-related deaths. Individuals under 35 years old constitute 75% of recent heat-related fatalities and 87% of lost years of life due to heat, while those over 50 account for 96% of cold-related deaths and 80% of lost years of life due to cold.#### Global Tourism's Carbon Footprint and InequalityThe tourism industry has a significant role in shaping the global carbon emissions pathway, with its carbon footprint continuing to grow. Unequal distribution characterizes these emissions, with the twenty highest-emitting countries contributing three-quarters of the global footprint. Per-capita tourism emissions in high-income nations now exceed those in low-income nations by two orders of magnitude, creating stark inequities in tourism decarbonization strategies.### Climate Change's Dynamic Impacts#### Political Disagreement Hinders Climate ActionDespite broad support for policies addressing climate change, political disagreement is a major obstacle to progress. Two-thirds of Americans report that climate change is already noticeably affecting their local communities, yet relatively few anticipate making significant sacrifices in their lifetimes due to its influence.#### Adaptive Strategies for Climate ImpactsAdopting transboundary approaches to climate adaptation can reduce risks by considering the interconnectedness of water, energy, food, and people. Identifying vulnerabilities across geographic and sectoral boundaries and developing strategies to manage flows of these resources can enhance resilience for interconnected systems and populations.### Call to ActionAddressing the urgency of climate change requires decisive actions from individuals and institutions alike. Prioritizing the protection of vulnerable ecosystems, supporting renewable energy initiatives, and promoting sustainable lifestyles are critical measures for safeguarding our planet and securing a sustainable future. The articles highlighted in this research update provide valuable insights and perspectives to inform decision-making and steer the world towards a path of climate stability and resilience.